BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a few weeks back and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no cash game locks this week for me but I went with Yana since I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the battle and I think she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how large her ceiling is but in money games it does not really matter a lot since we do not have to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would expect about 10x from Yana in a decision win and I’ll take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of this week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights tend to score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and the grappling improvements really add up. I anticipate this to be a really fun battle, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I am always looking for a minimum of 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka didn’t get that with a triumph. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point reduction to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP play here and if he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.
Play of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
For a fight that I hope to remain standing, I have quite a bit of interest in this struggle. I believe it will be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range fight of this week, so that I feel a KO from guy would have a fantastic chance to put them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it more because I’m picking the underdog to get the knockout and I expect Millender to be the higher owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but that I will most likely have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a better GPP struggle than it’s for money games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, however I’ll have a good amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at that wages and I don’t see that happening. When he wins a clear 30-27 decision, he then likely scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that will not win anybody a GPP. I don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can move for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not willing to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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